September 2026 Maricopa County Real Estate Market Update

August looked like a quiet month in the Valley. Prices held steady, about the same number of homes were for sale, and homes took a few extra days to sell. Nothing dramatic.

Then mortgage rates climbed four weeks in a row, and buyers pulled back almost immediately. That happened in the middle of September, after most of August's numbers were already in the books. So this month's update covers both: the calm month that just ended, and the shift that's happening right now.

What's Happening

• Fewer homes sold, and most of that was new construction. 5,471 homes sold in August, about 8% fewer than last August. But sales of brand-new homes fell nearly 20%, while resales dropped less than 5%.
• The number of homes for sale barely moved. There were 23,406 homes on the market at the end of August, right about where it was a year ago. After two years of shrinking, inventory has leveled off.
• Prices held. The typical home sold for $445,000, a little higher than last August.
• You're getting more house for the money. The price per square foot slipped slightly compared to last year. Same money, bigger home.
• Homes are sitting a little longer. The typical home took 88 days to sell in August, up from 85 in July and just above the 87 days it took a year ago.
• Buyers slowed down in mid-September. After rates rose four weeks straight, buyer activity dropped in 15 of the Valley's 18 largest cities.

Most of the Drop in Sales Came From New Construction

“Home sales down 8%” sounds worse than it is, because the drop wasn't spread evenly.

Builders had a rough month. Sales of brand-new homes in Maricopa County fell about 20% compared to last August. Resales, meaning regular homeowners selling their homes, were down less than 5%. Builders make up only about a fifth of the market, but they accounted for more than half of the total decline.

If you own a home and you're thinking about selling, that second number is the one that applies to you. Demand softened a little. It didn't collapse.

One more thing worth knowing: August had one fewer business day than July, which explains part of the drop from last month. Compared to last August, though, it's an even comparison.

Prices Held Steady, and You're Getting More House for Your Money

Two things happened at the same time in August, and they sound contradictory until you put them next to each other.

The typical Valley home sold for $445,000, slightly more than it did last August. At the same time, the price per square foot went down a little compared to a year ago.

Put together, that means buyers are spending roughly what they would have spent a year ago and getting a bigger home for it. That's a quieter kind of affordability than prices actually dropping, but it's real money, and it's been building for a while.

While we're here, one thing that confuses almost everyone: you'll see two very different numbers for what a Phoenix home costs. The average sale price in August was $579,032. The typical home sold for $445,000. The difference is that a handful of multimillion-dollar sales drag the average way up, while the typical (median) price is the one right in the middle of everything that sold. When a headline quotes a big number, it's usually the average, and it's usually not describing a house like yours.

We've answered that question and a few related ones in more detail here.

Then Rates Jumped, and Buyers Slowed Down

Everything above describes August. The newest numbers are about two weeks fresher, and they look different.

Mortgage rates rose four weeks in a row. Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.95% for the week ending September 17, up from 6.26% a year ago and the highest it's been since January 2025. Some daily rate trackers touched 7%.

Buyers reacted fast. The Cromford Market Index, which tracks whether conditions favor buyers or sellers around the Valley, posted its weakest reading since February, and buyer activity fell in 15 of the 18 largest cities.

Here's the part that matters most: this wasn't a flood of new listings hitting the market. The number of homes for sale barely budged. Buyers simply got more cautious once their monthly payment went up.

Where You're Buying or Selling Still Matters a Lot

The Cromford Market Index scores each city on a scale where 100 means buyers and sellers are on even footing. Above 100, sellers have the advantage. Below 100, buyers do.

Last month we told you the high end of the Valley was the strongest part of the market. One month later, it's leading the slowdown, and we'd rather say that plainly than quietly change the subject.

Paradise Valley dropped 13% in a month and Fountain Hills fell 8%, after both sat at the top of the list all summer. Scottsdale is the exception and actually improved. All three are still seller's markets, but the direction changed quickly. A week earlier, Paradise Valley was down only 2%.

Zoom out and here's where the Valley's 18 largest cities stand: 7 favor sellers, 3 are even, and 8 favor buyers. Last month it was 9, 3 and 6. Glendale and Peoria both shifted toward buyers. For the first time this year, more of the Valley's big cities favor buyers than sellers.

It's a good reminder that there's no single “Phoenix market.” Where you're buying or selling matters as much as when.

For Sellers

You have a little less leverage than you did a month ago. But nothing in this data looks like trouble.

Sellers are still getting about 97 cents on every dollar they ask for, essentially the same as last year. There aren't more homes competing with yours than there were. And in August, more sellers made it all the way to a sale instead of giving up and taking their home off the market.

What's changed is that buyers are more sensitive to price and slower to commit. That makes the old approach of listing high and cutting later more expensive than it used to be. The homes that sell well this fall will be the ones priced right in the first week, not the third month.

If your home is in Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, or Scottsdale, you're still in the strongest part of the Valley. Just know the momentum that's been on your side all summer has stopped in two of those three.

Curious what your home is actually worth in today's market? Get a free home value estimate and let's talk through your options.

For Buyers

Higher rates cost you more every month. They also clear out your competition, and that's happening right now.

Square footage is getting cheaper. Sellers are negotiating about the same as they were a year ago. And more of the Valley's big cities favor buyers than sellers for the first time this year. The people you would have been bidding against are stepping back.

It's a genuine trade-off, not a free lunch. A 6.95% rate costs real money every month compared to the 6.26% rate that you could have gotten a year ago. What you get in exchange is room to negotiate, more house per dollar, and time to think instead of rushing.

Ready to see what's out there? Start browsing homes in the Valley or reach out and we'll help you figure out where you'd get the most value right now.

What We're Watching

Whether rates keep climbing. Four weeks of increases cooled buyers off. Four weeks in the other direction would probably warm them back up.

Whether high-end listings come back. Some luxury sellers pull their homes off the market during the hottest months and relist in late September. That hasn't happened yet this year. If it does now that buyers have slowed, the top of the market could soften further.

Whether August's deals close. More homes went under contract in August than in July. Those deals close in September and October, so next month's report could read better than this one.

Nothing here points to anything dramatic. But after a summer of slow, steady improvement for sellers, the direction changed in September, and that's the thing to keep an eye on heading into fall.

Sources

ARMLS STAT Report, September 2026 (data for August 2026), with ARMLS staff commentary

The Cromford Report, Mid-Month Pricing Update and Forecast, September 16, 2026

The Cromford Report, Market Summary for the Beginning of September 2026, September 4, 2026

The Cromford Report, CMI Large City Ranking Table, September 17, 2026

Maricopa County Monthly Home Sales Statistics, August 2026, published September 3, 2026

Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending September 17, 2026

Lianne Russo Liddell is an Associate Broker, REALTOR® and co-owner of The Russo Fadler Group at Realty ONE Group, serving buyers and sellers throughout Greater Phoenix. Learn more at therfgaz.com.

The Russo Fadler Group at Realty ONE Group helps buyers and sellers throughout Greater Phoenix make informed real estate decisions with clear guidance, strong advocacy and a fiduciary-first approach.