Why Don't Phoenix Home Price Reports Agree With Each Other?

If you've looked up Phoenix home prices lately, you've probably seen several different numbers and wondered which one to trust. Most of them are right. They're just counting different things. Below are plain-English answers to the questions we get asked most, using Greater Phoenix and Maricopa County numbers from August and September 2026.

Why do I see different median home prices for Phoenix?

Because different reports count different homes over different stretches of time. For August 2026, published median prices for the Phoenix area ranged from $445,000 to $470,000, and every one of those numbers is accurate.

Here's what each one actually counts:

• $445,000 — homes sold through the Arizona MLS, the listing database agents use, during the month of August
• $445,500 — The Cromford Report's number for all areas and all kinds of homes in August
• $450,000 — Cromford's mid-month number, covering August 16 through September 15
• $470,000 — every sale filed with Maricopa County, including brand-new homes
• $450,000 — Maricopa County sales of previously owned homes only, leaving new construction out

The $470,000 number is the highest because county records include builder sales that don't always go through the MLS, and new homes cost more. In August, the typical new home in Maricopa County sold for $512,000, compared with $450,000 for a home someone had lived in before.

What to do with all that: pick one source and follow it over time. The trend inside a single report will tell you far more than the gap between two different reports.

Can home prices go up while price per square foot goes down?

Yes, and that's exactly what happened in Greater Phoenix in August 2026. The typical home sold for $445,000, about 1% more than a year earlier, while the price of each square foot slipped a little over the same period. Buyers paid about the same total and got a bigger home for it.

Price per square foot is simply the sale price divided by the size of the house. It tells you what you're paying for the space itself, separate from how big the house happens to be.

In August, the typical square foot sold for $249.20, a bit less than a year earlier. The Cromford Report's own version of that measure, covering the month ending September 15, came in at $249.80 and also landed below last year, after running slightly ahead of it as recently as August.

The two numbers can move in opposite directions because a home's total price depends on both its size and the price of each foot. When larger homes make up more of what's selling, total prices can hold steady even as the price per foot drifts down.

If you're buying, price per square foot is the better measure of what your money gets you. If you're selling, the total price is what lands on your closing statement. At the moment, the two are telling slightly different stories.

Why are Phoenix home sales down?

Most of the drop is new construction rather than homes sold by everyday owners. Sales across Maricopa County fell 7.8% in August 2026 compared with August 2025, but sales of brand-new homes dropped 19.5%, while sales of previously owned homes fell only 4.5%.

Builders made up 19.5% of the Maricopa County market in August, down from 22.3% a year earlier. Put another way, more than half of the entire decline in sales came from a group that accounts for less than a fifth of the market.

If you own a home and you're thinking about selling, that 4.5% is the number that describes your situation. Demand eased a little. It didn't fall apart.

Builders did have one bright spot: new home sales rose 4.4% from July, their best result of 2026, even though August had one fewer business day.

Why do monthly home sales numbers jump around so much?

Part of the change from month to month is the calendar rather than the market. Sales can only close on business days, and the number of business days varies. August 2026 had 21 against July's 22, which explains roughly 4 points of the 12.8% drop in sales between those two months.

Adjusting for the shorter month, the real decline was closer to 9%. Comparing August 2026 with August 2025 needs no adjustment at all, because both months had exactly 21 business days, which makes that 7.8% drop a genuine one.

September 2026 also has 21 business days, the same as August 2026 and September 2025, so next month's comparisons will be clean in both directions.

Whenever a monthly sales number looks dramatic, it's worth checking the business day count before reading too much into it.

Does the Phoenix housing market slow down in the fall?

Yes. Greater Phoenix follows a dependable seasonal rhythm. Sales peak in spring and early summer, taper off through late summer and fall, and prices usually soften into October before activity builds back up over the winter.

August 2026 sales dropped 12.8% from July, which is a normal seasonal move rather than a warning sign. The Cromford Report expects prices to stay soft through September and into October, with sales steadying from November onward.

One quirk specific to the Valley: some owners of expensive homes take them off the market during the hottest months and put them back on in late September. That changes what's available at the top end heading into fall.

This is why comparing a month against the same month last year is more useful than comparing it against last month. Sales drop from July to August nearly every year, no matter what the market is doing.

What is the Cromford Market Index?

It's a weekly score measuring the balance between buyers and sellers in each Greater Phoenix city. A score of 100 means the two sides are evenly matched. Above 100 means sellers have the advantage, and below 100 means buyers do.

It's published by The Cromford Report and covers the Valley's 18 largest cities. As of September 17, 2026, the scores ran from 182.3 in Paradise Valley down to 48.8 in Maricopa.

The index is most useful as an early warning. It reflects what's being listed and put under contract right now, while sale prices describe deals that were negotiated a month or two ago. When the index moves before prices do, the index is usually the one telling you what's coming.

Direction matters as much as the score itself. A city sitting at 150 that dropped 13% in a month is still a seller's market, but it's a weakening one.

Is Phoenix a buyer's market or a seller's market right now?

It depends on the city. As of mid-September 2026, 8 of the Valley's 18 largest cities favored buyers, 7 favored sellers, and 3 were evenly balanced. That's the first time in 2026 that buyers had the advantage in more big cities than sellers did.

• Sellers still have the edge in: Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, Chandler, Cave Creek, Mesa and Phoenix
• Roughly even: Avondale, Glendale and Gilbert
• Buyers have the edge in: Peoria, Tempe, Goodyear, Surprise, San Tan Valley, Queen Creek, Buckeye and Maricopa

The big change in September happened at the top of the market. Paradise Valley dropped 13% in a single month and Fountain Hills dropped 8%, after both led the Valley all summer. Scottsdale was the exception and actually improved.

There's really no single “Phoenix market.” The differences between cities are often bigger than the changes in any one city from month to month.

How much do mortgage rates affect the Phoenix housing market?

A lot, and faster than most people expect. After the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed four weeks in a row to 6.95% in mid-September 2026, buyer activity dropped in 15 of the Valley's 18 largest cities during that same four-week stretch.

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.95% for the week ending September 17, 2026, up from 6.76% the week before and 6.26% a year earlier. That's the highest it's been since January 2025.

Here's what makes it clear rates were the cause: the number of homes for sale barely moved during those four weeks. Nothing flooded the market. Buyers simply slowed down once their monthly payment went up.

Phoenix buyers react to rate changes within weeks. Sales reports move much more slowly, because the sales closing today were negotiated a month or two ago. That's why a closed-sales report can look perfectly calm while conditions are already shifting underneath it.

What does this mean if I'm thinking about buying or selling?

If you're selling, pricing accurately matters more than it did six months ago, because buyers have become more sensitive to their monthly payment and slower to commit. If you're buying, competition has thinned out and you're getting more square footage per dollar, which means more room to negotiate than the headline prices suggest.

Sellers are still getting about 97 cents on every dollar they ask for, essentially unchanged from a year ago, and there aren't more homes competing with yours than there were. What's changed is buyer urgency, not the seller's position falling apart.

Curious what your home is actually worth in today's market? Get a free home value estimate and let's talk through your options.

Ready to see what's out there? Start browsing homes in the Valley or reach out and we'll help you figure out where you'd get the most value right now.

Sources

ARMLS STAT Report, September 2026 (data for August 2026)

The Cromford Report, Mid-Month Pricing Update and Forecast, September 16, 2026

The Cromford Report, Market Summary for the Beginning of September 2026, September 4, 2026

The Cromford Report, CMI Large City Ranking Table, September 17, 2026

Maricopa County Monthly Home Sales Statistics, August 2026, published September 3, 2026

Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending September 17, 2026

Lianne Russo Liddell is an Associate Broker, REALTOR® and co-owner of The Russo Fadler Group at Realty ONE Group, serving buyers and sellers throughout Greater Phoenix. Learn more at therfgaz.com.

The Russo Fadler Group at Realty ONE Group helps buyers and sellers throughout Greater Phoenix make informed real estate decisions with clear guidance, strong advocacy and a fiduciary-first approach.