Have Phoenix Home Prices Really Recovered Since 2022? 

Home prices in Greater Phoenix look stable on the surface, but the full picture is more complicated once you dig into how they're measured and what inflation has done to real values since the 2022 peak. Below are answers to the questions we hear most, based on Cromford Report data through July 2026.

Are Phoenix home prices back to where they were in 2022?

No. In inflation-adjusted terms, most Phoenix-area homes are still worth noticeably less than they were at their 2022 peak, even in areas where the sticker price looks unchanged.

Single Family Detached homes, the largest and most resilient category in Greater Phoenix, are down just under 10% in nominal price since their May 2022 high. Adjusted for inflation, that decline is nearly 20%. Every other major dwelling type shows an even wider gap between its nominal and real decline.

Why do Phoenix home prices look flat but are actually falling?

Because a flat sticker price doesn't account for inflation. A home selling for the same price it did a year or two ago has still lost real value if the cost of living rose over that time.

Nominal price, the number on the closing statement, ignores inflation entirely. Real price restates every closing into today's dollars before comparing them. Across Greater Phoenix, that adjustment turns declines that look like 10-15% in nominal terms into declines closer to 13-22% in real terms, depending on the region.

What's the difference between average price and median price in the Phoenix housing market?

Average price is pulled upward by a small number of expensive sales, while median price reflects what a truly typical home sold for. In Greater Phoenix, that gap has been widening for years.

Over the last twelve months, average sale price has run about 36.5% above median sale price, up from roughly 31% three years ago. The wider that gap gets, the more a headline "average price" figure is being distorted by luxury activity rather than reflecting the typical home.

For a more in-depth explanation, read our other article "Why Don't Phoenix Home Price Reports Agree with Each Other?" here. 

Why does the Cromford Report use median price per square foot instead of average?

Median price per square foot is the pricing measure least distorted by both luxury sales and shifts in what size of home happens to be selling that month, making it the most reliable gauge of typical home values.

Average price can be skewed by a single expensive sale. Median price can be skewed by a slow month for one home size and a hot month for another. Median price per square foot avoids both problems by dividing price by size on every sale first, then taking the middle value. In July 2026, 62% of Greater Phoenix closings sold below the average price per square foot, a sign of just how far a handful of high-end sales can pull that average from the typical result.

Which Phoenix-area homes have held their value best since 2022?

Single Family Detached homes overall, and especially homes priced above $2 million, which is the only major segment still gaining real, inflation-adjusted value since 2022.

Homes priced above $2 million are up nearly 5% in nominal terms since May 2022 and remain close to an all-time high. Their real, inflation-adjusted peak didn't arrive until January 2023, eight months after the rest of the market turned down, and they remain down only about 6.5% from that later real peak, a much smaller decline than the broader market has seen.

Which Phoenix-area homes have lost the most value since 2022?

Apartment-style condos have had the roughest ride of any category with reliable data, down roughly 30% in real, inflation-adjusted terms since their 2022 peak.

Gemini and twin homes, along with manufactured and mobile housing, are each down roughly 27-29% in real terms since their 2022 peaks. Patio homes look like an exception in nominal dollars, since their sticker-price high didn't come until May 2024, but adjusted for inflation their real peak actually landed back in September 2022, and they're down about 22% in real terms from there.

Did every part of Greater Phoenix peak in 2022 at the same time?

Almost. Six of the Valley's eight regions peaked in the first half of 2022, but the Northeast Valley and Central Phoenix kept climbing in nominal terms for years afterward.

Once inflation is stripped out, though, even those two regions' real peaks land in that same spring 2022 window as everywhere else. They didn't keep gaining real value longer than the rest of the market; they simply kept pace with the rising cost of living for a while before turning down like everyone else.

Is the luxury home market in Phoenix really booming?

Yes. Homes priced above $2 million are behaving like a completely different market from the rest of Greater Phoenix, with rising prices and a growing number of buyers.

Monthly closings in the $2 million-plus tier have climbed 55% since 2022, from roughly 115 a month to about 178 a month, so it isn't a shrinking pool of buyers propping up a thin segment. More buyers are closing on luxury homes than at any point in the past four years, a trend widely attributed to stock market gains being reinvested into real estate.

Is now a good time to buy a home in Phoenix?

For most buyers shopping outside the luxury tier, current conditions favor buyers: real home values have been declining for four years, giving buyers more room to negotiate than headline prices suggest.

That dynamic doesn't apply everywhere. Cities like Paradise Valley and Scottsdale, and anything priced above $2 million, are seeing real competition and rising prices, so expect a different negotiating position in those segments.

Curious what that means for your search? Start browsing homes in the Valley or reach out and we'll help you figure out where you'd get the most value right now.

Is now a good time to sell a home in Phoenix?

It depends heavily on price tier and location. Luxury sellers and certain submarkets are in a strong position, while sellers in the broader under-$2 million market need pricing grounded in today's data rather than 2022 peak values.

Inventory remains historically tight and demand is healthier than it was a year ago in most areas, which is a real advantage. But since most of the Valley has given back real value since 2022, pricing a home based on what a similar property sold for at the peak will likely miss the market.

Curious what your home is actually worth in today's market? Get a free home value estimate and let's talk through your options.

Sources

The Cromford Report, "Why Median $/SF Doesn't Lie," August 8, 2026

The Cromford Report, "Prices Since the Peak: Part Two," August 9, 2026

The Cromford Report, "Price Analysis: Part Three - A Longer-Term View," August 12, 2026

Lianne Russo Liddell is an Associate Broker, REALTOR® and co-owner of The Russo Fadler Group at Realty ONE Group, serving buyers and sellers throughout Greater Phoenix. Learn more at therfgaz.com.

The Russo Fadler Group at Realty ONE Group helps buyers and sellers throughout Greater Phoenix make informed real estate decisions with clear guidance, strong advocacy and a fiduciary-first approach.