July's numbers tell two different stories, depending on which home you're looking at. The typical Valley house is still working through a slow, inflation-adjusted decline that's lasted more than four years. The most expensive homes in town are doing something else entirely. Both of those things are true at the same time, and this month we finally have the numbers to show exactly how far apart they've drifted.

What's Happening

• Sales activity cooled seasonally. July closings came in at 6,280, down about 12% from June, though still up roughly 1% from a year ago.
• New listings ticked up. 8,367 new listings hit the market, up almost 4.4% from a year ago, giving buyers a little more to choose from heading into the slower part of summer.
• Inventory's year-over-year decline is shrinking. Active listings fell to 23,743, down under 1% from a year ago, the smallest annual drop we've tracked in this cycle.
• Buyer demand cooled for the first time in a while. Listings under contract dropped to 6,719, down 2% from a year ago, the first year-over-year decline after 12 straight months of gains. This is worth watching closely next month.
• Sales prices kept drifting higher on a nominal, year-over-year basis. The average sale price hit $599,412 (up 5.02%), and the median reached $450,000 (up 2.27%), the median's strongest year-over-year showing in this cycle.
• Homes took a little longer to sell. Median days on market rose to 61, up over 5% from June, though still slightly below where it stood a year ago.

A Change in How The Cromford Report Measures Price

The Cromford Report made a real shift in its own methodology this month, and it's worth understanding because you'll see it referenced going forward. They've moved away from average price per square foot, which had been getting distorted by luxury sales, and are now leading with median price per square foot instead.

The difference shows up clearly in the mid-August numbers. Average sales price per square foot fell 3.6% from mid-July, a steep one-month drop that caught Cromford's own forecast off guard. But median price per square foot, the figure that isn't swayed by a handful of high-end closings, only dropped 1.1% over the same stretch and is still up 0.4% from a year ago. Same market, two very different headlines, depending on which number you're reading.

Cromford's forecast for mid-September points to a median price per square foot around $251 and a median sales price around $448,000, both modest pullbacks that fit the usual summer slowdown rather than anything more dramatic.

One trend worth flagging: distress is quietly rising. Pre-foreclosures now make up 3.9% of listings under contract, up from roughly 2.2% back in June, and "normal" listings have slipped to 94.6% of the total, down from 97.5% a year ago. It's still low by historical standards, nowhere near the 2011-2012 downturn, but The Cromford Report is calling it an early warning worth watching rather than ignoring.

Not All Neighborhoods Are Equal Right Now

The Cromford Market Index, which scores each city on a scale where 100 is balanced, rose 1.9% from last month across the Valley's largest cities, a modest step in sellers' favor overall. But that average is being pulled almost entirely by one city.

Paradise Valley posted a 34% jump, by far the largest single-month move we've seen in this data. Fountain Hills (+10%) and Scottsdale (+6%) also strengthened for sellers, but every other city that moved in a seller-favorable direction did so by 3% or less. On the buyer-favoring side, Buckeye, Peoria, and Glendale saw the biggest shifts this month, a change from last cycle when Tempe and San Tan Valley led that list.

The West Valley has now taken over as the region most friendly to buyers, while the Southeast Valley has actually firmed up a little since last month. Across the Valley's 18 largest cities, 9 are currently in a seller's market, 3 are balanced, and 6 favor buyers. 

How Phoenix Stacks Up Nationally

The S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller Index, published in late August, gives a national comparison point, though it's worth remembering this data lags well behind what's happening right now. The latest release covers closings from April through June, meaning the typical sale it captures closed in mid-May, over three months ago.

With that caveat in mind: Phoenix was one of only five metro areas to post a month-over-month decline (-0.10%). Year-over-year, Phoenix sits at -0.88%, well below the national average of +1.52%, though that gap has narrowed slightly compared with last month. Phoenix remains an underperformer nationally on this measure, but it's a lagging signal, not a current one, so treat it as context rather than a read on where things stand today.

A Bigger Story Behind the Numbers

This month's Case-Shiller and Cromford Market Index (CMI) numbers both point to something deeper: Valley home prices have been quietly losing real, inflation-adjusted value since the 2022 peak, even in months where the sticker price looks flat, and one part of the market, homes over $2 million, is doing the exact opposite. We've broken that down in a dedicated FAQ post covering what's really happened to Phoenix home prices since 2022, which is worth a read if you want the full picture behind this month's headlines.

For Sellers

If your home is priced under $2 million, the honest picture is that you're still selling into a market that's given back real value since 2022, even in areas where the sticker price looks stable. That doesn't mean it's a bad time to sell, inventory is historically tight and demand, while cooling seasonally, is still healthier than a year ago in most areas. It does mean pricing needs to be grounded in today's data, not in what the neighbor's house sold for at the 2022 peak. If you're in the $2 million-plus tier, or in Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, or Fountain Hills, conditions are meaningfully stronger, and that's worth factoring into your strategy and timing.

Curious what your home is actually worth in today's market? Get a free home value estimate and let's talk through your options.

For Buyers

Outside the luxury tier, you're still negotiating from a position of real strength, and this month's data on real, inflation-adjusted prices makes the case even more clearly than usual. Most of the Valley has been quietly getting more affordable for four years running, even in months where the headline price looks flat. If you've been waiting for confirmation that patience is paying off, this is close to it. The one caveat: in cities like Paradise Valley and Scottsdale, and anywhere in the $2 million-plus range, that dynamic doesn't apply, and you should expect more competition.

Ready to see what's out there? Start browsing homes in the Valley or reach out and we'll help you figure out where you'd get the most value right now.

Looking Ahead

Watch three things heading into fall: whether under-contract activity's dip below last year's pace is a one-month blip or the start of a real seasonal cooldown, whether the slow rise in pre-foreclosure activity keeps trending upward, and whether the luxury market's momentum, now backed by four separate data points this month, continues to widen the gap with the rest of the Valley. None of it points to anything dramatic yet, but the divide between the typical home and the luxury tier is becoming the defining story of this market, not a side note to it.

Sources

ARMLS® COPYRIGHT 2026

The Cromford Report, Mid-Month Pricing Update and Forecast, August 17, 2026

The Cromford Report, CMI Large City Ranking Table, August 20, 2026

The Cromford Report, S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller Indexes for August 2026, August 25, 2026

The Cromford Report, "Why Median $/SF Doesn't Lie," August 8, 2026

The Cromford Report, "Prices Since the Peak: Part Two," August 9, 2026

The Cromford Report, "Price Analysis: Part Three - A Longer-Term View," August 12, 2026