Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and the surrounding area have been the standout part of Greater Phoenix for years. The question we hear most is whether homes there are really worth more, or whether more expensive homes are just selling. The answer depends on whether you look back three years or one.
The answers below are based on The Cromford® Report, a Phoenix housing data service, which analyzed county property sale records through August 2026. Cromford groups Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, Carefree, Rio Verde and Phoenix’s 85018 ZIP code, among other areas, into a region it calls the Northeast Valley. For the full picture of this month’s market, see our October 2026 Maricopa County Real Estate Market Update.
A quick note on two terms. The “typical” price is the median: the price right in the middle of all sales, where half sold for more and half for less. “Price per square foot” is the sale price divided by the home’s size, which lets you compare a small condo and a large house on equal footing.
Are home prices in Scottsdale and Paradise Valley really going up?
Yes, over the past three years. Homes in Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and the surrounding Northeast Valley are worth roughly 9% to 10% more per square foot than comparable homes were in mid-2023, far more than anywhere else in Greater Phoenix. Over the past year, though, values there rose less than 1%.
In the 12 months to August 2026, the typical (median) price per square foot in the Northeast Valley was $425.73, up 11.6% from $381.50 three years earlier. Across the rest of Greater Phoenix, it was $242.88, up just 1.0% over the same stretch.
The clearest test is to look at the same homes selling twice. Cromford found 771 Northeast Valley homes that sold once in the 12 months to August 2023 and again in the 12 months to August 2026. The typical one sold for 10.5% more the second time. Across the rest of Greater Phoenix, homes that sold twice gained just 2.8%. Some owners probably remodeled between sales, which is why Cromford estimates the true gain at about 9% to 10%.
Why do homes in Scottsdale and Paradise Valley cost so much more per square foot than the rest of Phoenix?
Mostly because far more expensive homes sell there. In the 12 months to August 2026, nearly half (46.9%) of home sales in the Northeast Valley, which includes Scottsdale and Paradise Valley, were $1 million or more, compared with 4.4% in the rest of Greater Phoenix.
The typical price per square foot in the Northeast Valley ($425.73) is about 75% higher than in the rest of Greater Phoenix ($242.88), and the typical home there sold for $938,000 in the 12 months to August 2026.
These numbers come from Maricopa and Pinal county property sale records, not counting foreclosure auctions. That means they include sales that were never listed in the MLS, the database real estate agents use to list homes for sale, so they won’t exactly match the numbers in MLS-based market reports.
Are Northeast Valley home prices rising just because more luxury homes are selling?
Only partly. Over the three years to August 2026, more expensive homes selling explains about 1 to 2 percentage points of the Northeast Valley’s 11.6% rise in typical price per square foot. The rest is a real increase in what homes in Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and nearby areas are worth.
When expensive homes make up a bigger share of sales, the typical price goes up even if no individual home gained value. That has been happening in the Northeast Valley:
- Sales of $2 million or more went from 12.3% of all sales to 19.1%.
- Sales of $3 million or more nearly doubled their share, from 5.5% to 10.0%.
- Sales of $5 million or more more than doubled, from 169 a year to 355.
- Townhouses and condos, which sell for less per square foot there, dropped from 34.6% of sales to 30.8%.
One change pushed the other way. Brand-new homes sell for more per square foot than older homes in the Northeast Valley, and they made up fewer of the sales (6.0%, down from 11.7%). To separate the real gain from these shifts, Cromford compared the same neighborhoods and the same kinds of homes over time. On that basis, price per square foot still rose 9.4% over three years.
How much did Scottsdale and Paradise Valley home values change in the past year?
Very little. In the 12 months to August 2026, home values in the Northeast Valley, which includes Scottsdale and Paradise Valley, rose just 0.7% when comparing the same kinds of homes, even though the typical price per square foot rose 2.8%. Most of the past year’s increase came from more expensive homes selling, not from homes becoming worth more.
That 0.7% still beats every other part of Greater Phoenix. Every other region saw values dip over the same period when comparing the same kinds of homes, and across the rest of Greater Phoenix the typical price per square foot fell 1.5%.
So if you hear that Scottsdale-area prices rose nearly 3% last year, that’s accurate as a headline, but it mostly describes which homes sold, not what your home is worth.
Which Scottsdale and Paradise Valley ZIP codes have gained the most value?
Paradise Valley’s 85253 leads by a wide margin: its typical price per square foot rose 30.6% between the 12 months to August 2023 and the 12 months to August 2026. Carefree’s 85377 and Scottsdale’s 85251 and 85257 have barely changed over the same period.
Three-year change in typical price per square foot, for Northeast Valley ZIP codes with at least 30 sales in both periods:
- Paradise Valley 85253: +30.6%
- Scottsdale 85254: +17.5%
- Phoenix 85018: +16.5%
- Scottsdale 85255: +15.8%
- Scottsdale 85258: +14.7%
- Fountain Hills 85268: +8.4%
- Scottsdale 85262: +8.3%
- Scottsdale 85266: +6.6%
- Scottsdale 85260: +6.4%
- Scottsdale 85259: +6.3%
- Scottsdale 85250: +5.9%
- Rio Verde 85263: +5.8%
- Cave Creek 85331: +5.2%
- Scottsdale 85257: +2.5%
- Scottsdale 85251: +1.7%
- Carefree 85377: +0.8%
Keep in mind these figures don’t adjust for the kinds of homes selling. If more large or high-end homes happened to sell in a ZIP code recently, its number will look bigger than what the typical home there actually gained.
Are luxury home values rising across all of Greater Phoenix, or just in Scottsdale and Paradise Valley?
Across Greater Phoenix. Outside the Northeast Valley, homes that first sold for $1 million or more were worth about 12% more three years later, close to the 13.6% gain in Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and nearby areas. What sets those areas apart is homes in the middle of the market.
Northeast Valley homes that first sold for $500,000 to $1 million gained 10.7% over three years. Homes in that same price range elsewhere in Greater Phoenix gained just 3.4%.
Within the Northeast Valley, gains were widespread. Homes that first sold for $1.5 million to $2 million rose 18.2%, and those that first sold for $800,000 to $1 million rose 14.9%. The one exception was homes that first sold for under $400,000, which slipped 1.5%. That’s a small group (78 homes), almost all townhouses or condos, which have been weaker across the whole Valley.
Have Scottsdale and Paradise Valley home prices kept up with inflation?
Roughly, over three years, but not over the past year. Home values in Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and the rest of the Northeast Valley rose about 9% to 10% from mid-2023 to mid-2026, while everyday costs nationwide rose about 9.1% between August 2023 and August 2026. Over the past year, home values there rose 0.7% while everyday costs rose 3.4%.
In other words, once you account for inflation, Northeast Valley homes have about held their value since 2023 and lost roughly 2.6% over the past year. The rest of Greater Phoenix has done worse: a 2.8% gain over three years against about 9.1% inflation works out to a loss of roughly 6% after inflation.
This fits with what we found in August. That post showed that even in the Northeast Valley, home values adjusted for inflation peaked in spring 2022, along with the rest of the Valley. That analysis measured from the 2022 peak and adjusted for inflation. This one starts in mid-2023, after prices had already come down, and looks at sale prices before inflation. Both are true. For the longer view, see Have Phoenix Metro Home Prices Really Recovered Since 2022?
Why is the Paradise Valley housing market cooling if prices there are up 30%?
Because rising prices and a cooling market measure different things. Paradise Valley’s 30.6% three-year gain reflects what homes sold for over several years. “Cooling” describes the market right now: in fall 2026, more homes came up for sale in Paradise Valley while fewer buyers were active, which gave buyers more leverage.
The Cromford Market Index scores how much leverage buyers and sellers have in each city. A score of 100 is balanced; above 100 favors sellers, and below 100 favors buyers. As of October 15, 2026, Paradise Valley’s score was 127.3, down 32% from a month earlier. It had 21% more homes for sale than a month before and 18% less buyer activity. Fountain Hills shifted even further, down 34% to 115.3, with 25% more homes for sale.
Part of this happens every year. Many luxury sellers take their homes off the market during the hottest months and put them back up in late September. This year, that wave arrived just as 30-year mortgage rates climbed above 7.5%, so buyer activity fell at the same time.
Both towns still favor sellers, just by a much smaller margin than in late summer. Scottsdale, at 144.2, was the strongest seller’s market among the Valley’s 18 largest cities in mid-October, and the only one where buyer activity grew over the month.
Is now a good time to buy a home in Scottsdale or Paradise Valley?
Buyers in Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills gained more choice and more room to negotiate in fall 2026, as more homes came up for sale and fewer buyers were active. Home values there have held up better than in the rest of Greater Phoenix, though, so more negotiating room doesn’t mean bargain prices. Scottsdale remains the most competitive market in the Valley.
The trade-off is the interest rate. Rates on 30-year mortgages peaked at 7.61% in early October 2026 before easing to 7.33% by mid-month, well above the 6.75% available in late August. Before you make an offer, ask your lender to show you how a change in rates affects your monthly payment.
Curious what that means for your search? Start browsing homes in the Valley or reach out, and we’ll help you figure out where you’d get the most value right now.
Is now a good time to sell a home in Scottsdale or Paradise Valley?
Sellers in Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and the rest of the Northeast Valley are still in a stronger position than most of Greater Phoenix, but they faced much more competition in fall 2026 as expensive homes came back on the market. The asking price should reflect what similar homes are worth today, not last year’s 2.8% headline gain or a neighbor’s sale from a stronger month.
The three-year gains are real, and they’re a genuine advantage. But values barely moved over the past year, more homes are for sale, and buyers face higher monthly payments than they did in the summer. A home priced on last year’s headline number is likely to sit while better-priced homes nearby sell first.
Curious what your home is actually worth in today’s market? Get a free home value estimate and let’s talk through your options.
Sources
The Cromford® Report, “Northeast Valley: How Is It Different?” October 10, 2026
The Cromford® Report, CMI Large City Ranking Table, October 15, 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index – August 2026, September 11, 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index – August 2023, September 13, 2023
Market data from The Cromford® Report, provided and analyzed by Sam Crosby, REALTOR® with The Russo Fadler Group at Realty ONE Group.
Lianne Russo Liddell is an Associate Broker, REALTOR® and co-owner of The Russo Fadler Group at Realty ONE Group, serving buyers and sellers throughout Greater Phoenix. Learn more at therfgaz.com.
The Russo Fadler Group at Realty ONE Group helps buyers and sellers throughout Greater Phoenix make informed real estate decisions with clear guidance, strong advocacy and a fiduciary-first approach.