Phoenix Metro Housing Market: September 2025 – Buyers Still in Control, Sellers Catch a Small Break
Key Takeaways:
- Supply fell for the second month, but mostly from sellers pulling out.
- Demand ticked up slightly, thanks to mortgage rates around 6.5%.
- Prices remain under pressure, with further declines forecast for September.
- Buyers hold the advantage, but sellers who adapt can still win.
Supply Decline Slowing
Active listings dropped 3.3% in August to 17,122, but that’s still 25% higher than last year. The drop is less dramatic than July’s 6.2% decline. And most of it came from cancellations and expirations — not faster sales.
The Cromford Report warns this trend may end soon. Supply typically rises between Labor Day and Thanksgiving, which could bring more competition for sellers.
Demand Shows Some Life
Contracts were up 9% year-over-year and closed sales were up 3% compared to last year. Buyers clearly prefer rates around 6.5% to the near-7% levels earlier this summer.
It’s not a demand surge — but it’s a modest lift in an otherwise sluggish year.
Prices Remain Soft
- Average sales price: $589,681 (down 1.9% compared to last month; down 2.7% compared to last year).
- Median price: $460,000 (flat compared to last month; down 2.1% compared to last year).
- Average price per square foot: $309.51 (down 0.2% compared to last month; down 3.2% compared to last year).
The Cromford Report’s mid-month forecast projects another dip into mid-September, likely to around $281 per square foot. If that’s the reality, that would mark three straight months of declines.
Buyers Still Hold the Upper Hand
Even with demand inching higher, buyers remain in control:
- Inventory is still up 25% compared to last year.
- Concessions are standard in most deals.
- Average Days on Market is rising (85 days on average; 65 median).
Affordability has improved compared to 2022, giving today’s buyers more opportunity to negotiate — something almost impossible in 2021.
Sellers: Strategy Is Everything
If you’re listing now, you must:
- Price to today’s market (not yesterday’s).
- Stage and prepare your home to compete.
- Build concessions into your plan.
Sellers who adapt can still succeed — especially with fewer competing listings than earlier this year. But stubborn pricing will mean extended days on market or cancellations.
Sources:
Bottom Line
August brought slightly stronger demand and softer supply, but not enough to change the overall story: it’s still a buyer’s market. Prices remain under downward pressure, and buyers continue to hold leverage. Sellers who are flexible and realistic will be the ones who succeed this fall.
For a tailored plan:
📞 Lianne: 602-463-1730 | Jason: 602-909-0673 | 📧 team@therfgaz.com