In this post, we’re breaking down what February’s data and the mid-month pricing update reveal about the Maricopa County real estate market—and what that means as we move deeper into 2026.

What’s Happening in the Maricopa County Real Estate Market?

• There were 5,870 closed sales in February, up 1.0% from a year ago, and up 21% from January following the normal seasonal pattern.
• Active listings climbed to 25,502, up 6.6% from a year ago and up 3.7% from last month, but the pace of growth appears to be slowing.
• Average sold price per square foot finished February at $314.43, up 0.9% year over year, supported by strong activity in the luxury segment.
• Average sales price rose to $630,149, up 2.40% from last month and 2.72% from a year ago.
• Median sales price came in at $450,000, down 2.0% from a year ago but up 0.7% from January, reflecting ongoing pressure in low- and mid-range price points.

Here’s where it gets interesting. The average price per square foot is up 0.9% year over year—suggesting appreciation. But the median sales price is down 2%. How can both be true at the same time? Because luxury is doing the heavy lifting, and it’s distorting the averages.

The Cromford Report makes one thing very clear: where your home is located matters more right now than almost any other factor.

Homes in Central Phoenix, Scottsdale, and upscale infill areas are holding value and moving. Homes in outer suburbs and farther-flung communities are dealing with supply that comfortably exceeds demand. If you’re in the outer ring and wondering why your neighbor’s house sat for 90 days—this is why.

According to ARMLS STAT Commentary:

• The $200K–$300K price range saw under-contract listings jump 27%—the largest increase in the entire market.
• The $500K–$700K range actually softened, with sales volume down roughly 6%.
• The $1M–$3M segment saw contracts rise 18%, but closed sales were nearly flat year over year.

Translation: buyer demand is strengthening at the lower end, but those transactions haven’t fully shown up in closings yet. The high end remains active—but it’s no longer leading the way it was in 2025.

What February’s Pricing Shift Really Means

At first glance, the year-over-year decline in median price looks concerning. In reality, this reflects a market that is deeply segmented rather than one in broad decline.

• The average price per square foot is up 0.9% year over year, supported by strong luxury sales—confirming that high-end demand remains intact.
• Median pricing is down 2% from a year ago, reinforcing that pressure is concentrated in lower and mid-price ranges.
• The Cromford Report mid-month forecast calls for flat pricing through mid-March, with the average price-per-square-foot projected at $312.19, which is virtually unchanged from mid-February.
• Pending listings show mild pricing softness, with average list price-per-square-foot down 0.6% from last month, suggesting near-term movement could go either way.

What Does This Mean for Phoenix Homeowners and Sellers?

This remains a competitive environment for sellers—especially outside the luxury segment.

• Inventory has grown meaningfully year over year, giving buyers more options.
• Buyers are active, but selective; under contract activity is up, but total volume remains below typical seasonal norms.
• Pricing success depends on precision, not optimism.

Sellers who price decisively based on recent closed sales—not peak-season comps—are the ones getting results.

Thinking about selling?

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What Does This Mean for Phoenix Home Buyers?

Buyers still have leverage:

• More inventory to choose from
• Longer days on market (average of 91 days, up nearly 11% year over year)
• Greater willingness from sellers to adjust price or terms

Lower and more stable interest rates have helped demand modestly, but buyers are not rushing. This remains a market that rewards patience and negotiation.

Thinking about buying? Sign up for our property search app here to get a clear picture of what’s really available right now.

Conclusion

February clarified the tone for early 2026: the market is stable, selective, and segmented. Luxury continues to perform well, while the bulk of the market adjusts. Pricing is no longer accelerating, but it is not collapsing either.

The next month will be critical in determining whether this balance holds for the first half of the year.

Sources

ARMLS STAT Report – February 2026

Cromford Report Market Summary

Cromford Report Mid-Month Forecast