Two local headlines this spring reached opposite conclusions about Greater Phoenix housing supply. One said inventory was surging toward record highs. The other warned of an immediate shortage of 56,000 homes. Neither tells the full story. Here’s what the data actually shows—and what it means for buyers and sellers heading into summer.

What’s Happening in the Maricopa County Real Estate Market?

• There were 7,539 closed sales in May, up 5.9% from a year ago. Both May 2025 and May 2026 had 21 working days, so that’s a clean apples-to-apples comparison.
• Active listings came in at 25,159, down 5.3% from last May. That’s the second month in a row with a year-over-year decline in active supply.
• Average sales price was $607,724, up 1.3% from last month and up 1.9% year-over-year.
• Median sales price was $454,990, up 1.1% from April and essentially flat year-over-year at $451,000.
• Average days on market: 83 days, flat from last month but up from 77 a year ago.
• Months of supply: 3.41, down significantly from 4.62 six months ago and down from 3.75 a year ago.
• Listings under contract: 8,462 at month’s end—up 8.4% from a year ago.

What’s Really Going On With Supply

The first headline, published May 4, said Phoenix inventory was surging toward record highs. The second, published May 14, declared an immediate shortage of 56,000 homes. Both ran within 10 days of each other. Both can’t be right.

Here’s what’s actually true: the first headline holds up over a 12-year window. But zoom out to 25 years and it falls apart. Every single day from 2006 to 2010 had more active listings than today. The all-time record was November 2007—nearly 58,000 active listings—just before the Great Recession and the worst foreclosure crisis in modern history. Today is nowhere close to that.

As for the shortage claim: if supply were critically low, you’d see prices climbing. They’re not. The Greater Phoenix median has barely moved in two years. Cromford’s assessment: active supply is statistically within a normal range. Not surging. Not critically short.

What is worth noting: supply is falling. Active listings are down over 4% from a year ago and have been declining since the spring peak. That’s a slow move in sellers’ favor—just not a dramatic one.

What’s Really Happening With Home Prices

Prices look stable on the surface—and in nominal terms, they are. But there’s more to it.

The median sales price in May was $454,990. That’s up slightly from April’s $449,900, and essentially flat from $451,000 a year ago. The Cromford Report puts the June 1 median at $455,000—same as last year.

Here’s the fuller picture:

• Median sales price: $454,990, up 1.1% from April, flat year-over-year.
• Average price per square foot: $278.89, essentially flat year-over-year.
• Average new list price: $671,747—down 7.3% over three months. Sellers are adjusting their asking prices to meet buyers where they actually are.
• Median new list price: $475,000, down slightly from a year ago.

One thing worth flagging: the average sales price jumped to $607,724 in May, up from $599,850 last month. Like the March-to-April swing we saw last month, this is partly a luxury mix effect—more high-end closings in the data pull the average up. The median is the more reliable read for most of the market.

Cromford adds a real-terms perspective worth understanding: with inflation running at 3.8% annually, a home that hasn’t moved in price has lost roughly $17,000 in real purchasing power over 12 months. Stable nominal prices aren’t the same as stable real value. Prices would need to be at $472,290 today to have kept pace with inflation.

Bottom line: prices aren’t falling off a cliff, but they’re not climbing either. Sellers who are priced right are moving. Sellers who aren’t are sitting—and adjusting.

Price Reductions Are Running Well Above Normal

This is one of the clearest signals in the May data. Three out of four homes that closed did so after a price reduction—with a median cut of $25,000 from the original list price. The typical May reduction over the past 11 years has been around $16,000. That’s a significant gap.

It broke down by property type like this:

• Detached Single Family: 73% closed after a median reduction of $25,000
• Townhouse/Condo: 84% closed after a median reduction of $24,900
• Apartment: 85% closed after a median reduction of $22,750
• Manufactured/Mobile Home: 79% closed after a median reduction of $17,700

Buyers are shopping on value, not urgency. Homes that are priced right from the start are selling. Homes that aren’t are getting there eventually—just after a cut.

New Construction: 16 Straight Months of Decline

New home sales in Maricopa County fell 14% year-over-year in May, extending the streak of monthly declines to 16 consecutive months. The $500,000–$700,000 range took the hardest hit, down 23%.

What matters most for resale buyers and sellers: the price gap between new construction and resale homes has narrowed to just 7%. The historical May average is around 30%. Builders are cutting prices and loading up on incentives to compete. That pressure flows directly to nearby resale sellers, who are increasingly competing for the same buyers.

New home closings did recover month-over-month in May—up 14% from April. But at 1,287 closings, new homes represented 17.9% of the total market, still well below the 21.2% share they held this time last year.

Luxury Market: Records at the Top End

While the volume market is grinding along, the luxury segment is doing something else entirely. Year-to-date sales are running 2.9% above last year overall—but at the top of the price range, the numbers stand out:

• Sales over $1M are up 10% and at an all-time high
• Sales over $5M are up 31% year-over-year
• 36 sales over $10M have already closed in 2026—exceeding last year’s full-year record of 32, before the year is halfway through

The summer dynamic is worth watching here. As temperatures push above 100 degrees, luxury sellers typically pull listings at high rates. Last year, Paradise Valley went from a balanced market in May to the valley’s No. 1 seller’s market by August—not because demand surged, but because supply evaporated. The market returned to balance once new listings came back in September and October.

April already showed elevated cancellations over $1M, and Paradise Valley’s Cromford Market Index jumped 16% in a single month to 123.1. If the pattern holds, sellers who stay active this summer in luxury markets may find themselves in stronger position than the calendar would suggest.

What Does This Mean for Phoenix Homeowners and Sellers?

Supply is falling and the seasonal slowdown will thin competition further over the next couple of months. That’s the good news.

The less good news: buyers still have the edge in most of the market, price reductions are running well above historical norms, and marketing times are creeping up. Homes are sitting at 83 days on average—and Cromford expects that to increase by another 6–10 days as summer sets in.

The sellers winning right now are pricing accurately from day one and presenting the home well. Those who test the market high are eventually getting there—after a $25,000 cut and more time on market.

• Closings are up nearly 6% year-over-year—there are active buyers out there.
• Months of supply at 3.41 is tightening. The inventory cushion is compressing slowly.
• Mortgage rates at 6.65% are keeping some buyers on the fence. When rates fall below 6.5%, expect activity to pick up.

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What Does This Mean for Phoenix Home Buyers?

Buyers still have leverage in most of this market—but it’s worth knowing where that leverage is strongest.

With 75% of homes selling after a price reduction and median days on market at 56 days—even as the average reached 83 days—this isn’t a bidding-war-every-weekend market.” There’s time to be thoughtful. New construction is an especially strong option right now—builder incentives are running hot and the price gap between new and resale is at historic lows.

• Below $500K and in outer suburbs, you have real negotiating room. Sellers are working with buyers on price and terms.
• Above $500K in central and higher-end locations, competition is tighter. Well-priced homes in good condition are moving.
• The luxury market above $1M is the most active it’s ever been. If that’s your range, you’re competing in a seller’s market in many areas.

Here’s what’s worth watching: supply just had its second consecutive month of year-over-year decline. Under contract activity is up 7.5% from a year ago. The conditions that made 2024 so buyer-friendly are slowly shifting. Buyers who do their homework now will be best positioned if rates drop and demand picks up.

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Conclusion

May showed a market that’s stable—not surging, not struggling, but quietly shifting.

Supply is falling for the second month in a row. Closings are up nearly 6% year-over-year. Prices are holding in nominal terms. And the luxury market is setting records that have nothing to do with the broader narrative about inventory.

For buyers, you still have leverage—but the window is narrowing in well-located, well-priced segments. For sellers, the momentum is slowly moving your way. Pricing still has to be right. That part hasn’t changed.

The market is waiting on rates. When they move, things will move with them.

Sources

ARMLS STAT Report – May 2026 Data, Published June 4, 2026

ARMLS Market Commentary by Paridhi Saboo – May 2026

The Cromford Report – Market Summary, June 3, 2026

The Cromford Report – Daily Observations, June 4–5, 2026

Cromford® Market Index Table – June 4, 2026

©2026 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Lianne Russo Liddell is an Associate Broker, REALTOR® and co-owner of The Russo Fadler Group at Realty ONE Group, serving buyers and sellers throughout Greater Phoenix. Learn more at therfgaz.com.

The Russo Fadler Group at Realty ONE Group helps buyers and sellers throughout Greater Phoenix make informed real estate decisions with clear guidance, strong advocacy and a fiduciary-first approach.