If you're waiting for a clear signal on which way the Valley market is headed, June gave us a hint rather than an answer. Inventory is getting tighter, buyers are showing up in bigger numbers, and price declines are finally losing steam. None of that means prices are about to take off. It means the market is slowly working through an imbalance that's been building for two years, and June was another step in that direction.

What's Happening

• Sales activity is up, but not as much as the headline suggests. June closings rose about 8% year-over-year, but June had an extra business day compared to last year, and that alone accounts for roughly 5 points of that gain.
• Inventory keeps shrinking. Active listings fell to 24,143, down about 5% from a year ago and down 4% from last month.
• Buyers are showing up. Listings going under contract have now risen year-over-year for 12 straight months, and fewer of those contracts are falling apart before closing.
• Homes are selling faster relative to what's available. The absorption rate jumped to 29.5%, up nearly 14% from a year ago, while months of supply dropped to 3.4, down 12% year-over-year.
• Price declines are shrinking, not disappearing. Asking prices have now fallen year-over-year for 26 straight months, but the size of those declines has narrowed from the high 3-4% range to the 2-3% range more recently.
• Foreclosures ticked up. Trustee's deeds in Maricopa County rose from 83 to 134 compared with last June, the highest June total in seven years, but most trace back to loans that first went delinquent in 2021 and 2022, not new financial stress.

What the Cromford Report Tells Us

Cromford's early-July snapshot compares this year with both last month and last year, and the picture is clear on one front: the market is in noticeably better shape than it was in July 2025 across nearly every measure. Compared with just last month, though, the story is more mixed, which is normal for this time of year.

Active listings (excluding those already under contract) came in at 24,566, down 4.3% from a year ago and down 3.6% from June. Fewer competing listings is good news for sellers, and Cromford notes the drop has been sharper at higher price points, since some luxury sellers pull their homes off the market during the hottest summer months and plan to relist in late September.

Demand cooled a bit from June, which is the normal seasonal pattern, but it's still running ahead of last year. Listings under contract came in at 8,144, up 5.7% year-over-year but down 4.5% from June. Closed listings for the month reached 7,257, up 9.2% from a year ago, though about 5 points of that gain is tied to an extra working day in this year's comparison, not stronger underlying demand.

On pricing, Cromford's numbers show the same split we're seeing elsewhere: average price per square foot was $302.56, up 3.2% year-over-year, while the median sales price was $454,990, up just 1.1% and essentially flat compared with last month. Days inventory, a measure of how many days' worth of homes are currently on the market, dropped to 132.5, down 8.6% from a year ago, another sign supply is thinning out.

Cromford's own summary sums it up well: the market is well-behaved and stable, in better shape than last year but still unexciting by the standards of a normal, healthy market. There's no sign of meaningful nominal price declines, but with inflation running above 4%, homes have become noticeably more affordable in real terms over the past several years, even without prices falling on paper.

Reading the Pricing Data

This is where the numbers get interesting. The average sales price in June was $614,829, up 4% from a year ago. But the median sales price was $450,000, up just 0.22%. When the average moves a lot more than the median, it almost always means the mix of what's selling has shifted toward higher-end homes, not that typical home values are surging. Cromford's figures show a milder version of the same pattern (average $/SF up 3.2% year-over-year versus median sales price up just 1.1%), which lines up with what we're seeing across the board.

Worth watching: some of that higher-end supply is about to thin out further, since Cromford notes luxury sellers are holding back listings until late September. Less competition at the top could keep that segment's pricing elevated into the fall.

One more data point to keep an eye on: homes are taking a little longer to sell despite the tighter supply. Average days on market rose to 85, up almost 8% from a year ago. That's not a red flag by itself, but it's a reminder that buyers still have room to be selective, especially outside the luxury tier.

Not All Neighborhoods Are Equal Right Now

The Cromford Market Index scores each city on a scale where 100 means balanced, above 100 favors sellers, and below 100 favors buyers. As of July 9, the average index across the Valley's largest cities slipped 1.3% from a month earlier, a small step in buyers' favor. It's a subtle shift, driven by demand cooling just slightly faster than supply, and Cromford notes both changes are barely detectable unless you dig into the numbers.

The averages hide some real differences by city, though. Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, and Paradise Valley remain the strongest seller's markets in the Valley, and Scottsdale and Paradise Valley posted the biggest gains for sellers this past month, up 8% each, with Peoria close behind at 7%. On the other end, Tempe and San Tan Valley are moving hardest toward buyers, down 11% and 12% respectively in just a month. As a general pattern, the Southeast Valley is trending softer than the Northeast and West Valley right now.

Zoom out and here's where the 18 largest cities in Greater Phoenix stand: 8 are currently in a seller's market, 4 are balanced, and 6 favor buyers. It's a good reminder that "the Phoenix market" isn't really one market at all. Where you're buying or selling matters just as much as when.

For Sellers

If you've been sitting on the fence, the data is giving you a little more to work with than it was six months ago. Inventory is thinner, more buyers are getting to the closing table, and price declines are easing. That's a better setup than the market has offered in a while, but it isn't a green light to price aggressively. Buyers still have leverage in most price points below $1 million, and homes are still taking time to sell. Pricing right from day one matters more than ever.

Curious what your home is actually worth in today's market? Get a free home value estimate and let's talk through your options.

For Buyers

You're still negotiating from a position of strength in most of the market, particularly under the $1 million mark. Inventory is tightening, so that edge won't last forever, but it hasn't disappeared yet either. If you've been waiting for prices to drop further before jumping in, know that the pace of decline is slowing, and Cromford's own forecast points toward prices firming up, not falling further, over the next month.

Ready to see what's out there? Start browsing homes in the Valley or reach out and we'll help you figure out where you'd get the most value right now.

Looking Ahead

Watch the next couple of months for two things: how much demand cools as we move deeper into the seasonally slower part of summer, and whether the wave of luxury relistings expected in September changes the competitive picture at the top of the market. Nothing in the current data points to a dramatic shift in either direction, but the trend lines on inventory and buyer demand are still pointing the same way, and that's the more important story heading into fall.

Sources

ARMLS STAT Report, July 2026 (data for June 2026), commentary by Paridhi Saboo

The Cromford Report, Mid-Month Pricing Update and Forecast, June 15, 2026

The Cromford Report, Market Summary for the Beginning of June, June 3, 2026