Maricopa County Housing Market: July 2025 – Market Correction or New Normal?
Key Points at a Glance
- Inventory is up 42% year-over-year but supply is tightening compared to last month, mainly due to seller fatigue, not surging demand.
- Home prices fell sharply month-over-month and are now essentially flat, and slightly down
- Demand is showing signs of life as buyers react to falling asking prices and a small dip in mortgage rates
- Both buyers and sellers must rethink their strategy: yesterday’s playbook won’t cut it.
By the Numbers: July 2025
- Active Listings: 25,683 (up 3.4% for the month, and up 42% for the year)
- Monthly Sales: 6,629 (down 6.8% for the month, up 4.9% for the year)
- Monthly Average $/SF: $293.08 (down 2.4% for the month, and down 0.8% for the year)
- Monthly Median Sales Price: $450,000 (down 1.1% for the month, and flat for the year)
- Average Sales Price: $588,584 (down 1.1% for the month, and up 0.1% for the year)
- Average Days on the Market: 79 (up 3 days for the month, and up 13 days for the year)
- Months of Supply: 3.88 (up 2.9% for the month, and up 33% for the year)
What’s Really Happening?
- Pricing Correction Continues
The sharp decline in average price per square foot from $300.16 last month to $293.08 this month is a wake-up call for anyone still pricing their home like it’s 2023. The median sales price of $450,000 has not moved year-over-year, but it did slide down 1.1% from last month.
- Supply Tightens, But Not for the Right Reasons
Inventory is down compared to last month, but this is not from increased demand. It’s largely due to a spike in expired and cancelled listings as sellers throw in the towel or shift properties to rentals. This “shrinking supply” is a symptom of market fatigue, not recovery.
- Demand Shows Fragile Signs of Life
Pending and under contract numbers are slightly up year-over-year. The combination of softer prices and a minor dip in mortgage rates has nudged some buyers back into the market. This could spark a short-lived bump in activity, but demand is highly sensitive to rates, so any uptick could reverse this trend instantly.
- Distressed Inventory Creeping Up
While still historically low, distressed property rates (such as lender-owned and pre-foreclosure properties) are at their highest since early 2020.
- The Market Index Stalls
The Cromford® Market Index, while still below 75 (a threshold that signals a buyers’ market), has stopped falling for now. The recent improvement in supply and demand is a positive signal, but it’s on shaky ground.
Who’s Winning—and Who’s Waiting?
- Luxury Market
The high end remains strong but is less active in summer. Expect a slowdown, but not a crash.
- Entry Level/First-Time Buyers
This segment remains the weakest—more choices, but affordability and qualifying remain major hurdles.
- Sellers Who Adapt
Those who price realistically and prep homes for sale are closing deals. Others are sitting or quitting the market altogether.
Forecast: The Next 3 Months
- Expect prices to remain flat to slightly lower. The “good news” for sellers is that the free-fall has slowed. The bad news? Any rebound is likely to be weak and short-lived unless mortgage rates drop further.
- Caution: Inventory could rise again. Many cancelled and expired listings may return in the fall, or reappear as rentals if selling conditions don’t improve.
Takeaways and Action Steps
For Sellers:
- Price for today - not last year or even 3 months ago. The best pricing is aggressive, not wishful.
- Get “show ready” or expect to compete on price.
- Plan for concessions; most transactions require them now.
- Investor offers are still bottom-of-the-barrel—don’t jump unless you truly need out fast.
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For Buyers:
- Leverage is on your side, but be realistic. The market isn’t crashing, but sellers are motivated.
- Negotiate for closing cost credits and rate buy-downs.
- Monitor rates closely. If they rise, demand could vanish quickly; if they fall, be ready to move.
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Conclusion
Home ownership is still highly desirable in Maricopa County—but the playbook has changed.
Data drives success. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just watching, informed action is the only smart move. We can help.
Questions? Need advice?
Lianne: 602-463-1730 | Jason: 602-909-0673 | team@therfgaz.com
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