In this post, we’re breaking down what January’s data and the mid-month pricing update reveal about the Maricopa County real estate market and what that means as we move deeper into 2026.

What’s Happening in the Maricopa County Real Estate Market?

• There were 4,843 closed sales in January, up 2.3% from a year ago, but down 24% from December due to seasonality and fewer working days.
• Active listings climbed to 22,593, up nearly 10% from last month as many sellers who paused in Q4 returned to the market.
• Listings under contract increased sharply month over month, but are only modestly higher than this time last year, which shows improved activity, not a surge.
• Average sold price was $633,494, down 3.8% from mid-December, reflecting a shift toward more lower-priced homes closing in January.
• Average price per square foot finished January at $300.60, down 2.2% from mid-December as sales mix shifted away from luxury.
• Median sales price fell to $447,000, down 1.8% from December and 1.4% year over year.

According to the Cromford Report, the recent dip in prices doesn’t mean home values suddenly fell across the board. It mostly reflects a shift in what types of homes sold. In December, more higher-end homes closed, which pushed the averages up. In January, fewer luxury homes sold and more mid-priced homes closed, which naturally brought the averages back down. It’s more about the mix of homes selling than a broad drop in value.

What January’s Pricing Shift Really Means

At first glance, the January price dip looks negative. In reality, it reflects a return to a more sustainable pricing level after an unusually strong luxury-driven spike late in 2025.

• Over the two-month period from mid-November to mid-January, pricing is still net positive on a per-square-foot basis.
• Median pricing has softened slightly, reinforcing that pressure remains in the low- and mid-price ranges.
• Pending listings show only mild pricing weakness, suggesting near-term movement could go either way.

Cromford’s forecast for mid-February calls for flat pricing, with average price-per-square foot expected to remain close to current levels.

What Does This Mean for Phoenix Homeowners and Sellers?

This remains a competitive environment for sellers—especially outside the luxury segment.

• Inventory increased meaningfully in January.
• Buyers are active, but selective.
• Pricing success depends on precision, not optimism.

Sellers who price decisively based on recent closed sales—not peak-season comps—are the ones getting results.

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What Does This Mean for Phoenix Home Buyers?

Buyers still have leverage:

• More inventory to choose from
• Longer days on market
• Greater willingness from sellers to adjust price or terms

Lower and more stable interest rates have helped demand modestly, but buyers are not rushing. This remains a market that rewards patience and negotiation.

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Conclusion

January clarified the tone for early 2026: the market is stable, selective, and segmented. Luxury continues to perform well, while the bulk of the market adjusts. Pricing is no longer accelerating, but it is not collapsing either.

The next month will be critical in determining whether this balance holds for the first half of the year.

Sources:
ARMLS STAT Report – January 2026
Cromford Report Market Summary
Cromford Report Mid-Month Forecast