Phoenix Metro Housing Market: August 2025 – Low Supply, High Leverage

Here's what's happening in the Maricopa County Real Estate Market:

• Inventory is falling — but only because sellers are pulling listings.

• Buyers hold the negotiating power, with prices trending down and mortgage rates at their lowest in 10 months.

• Short-term optimism for sellers is possible if rates stay low, but the bigger picture still favors buyers heading into fall.

Supply is Dropping — But It’s Not a Sales Surge

Active listings in Maricopa County fell 6.2% from last month to 24,091. On the surface, that looks like good news for sellers. In reality, it’s driven by 7% more cancellations and 15% more expired listings compared to June. Many sellers are simply stepping out of the game until conditions improve.

This matters: the decline in competition is artificial. When cooler weather returns in late September, we expect supply to tick back up as sellers re-list — especially in the luxury and 55+ segments.

Prices Continue to Ease

• Average sales price per square foot: $284.83 — down 2.9% compared to last month; down 0.6% compared to last year

• Median sales price: $441,995 — down 1.8% compared to last month; up just 0.5% compared to last year.

• The Cromford Report's mid-month forecast expects prices to hold flat through mid-August before another possible dip into September.

In nominal terms, pricing is back to roughly 2022 levels — but when you factor in inflation, affordability is much better than it was then.

Buyers Have the Edge

With pending sales down and under-contract counts falling, buyers can negotiate harder:

• More seller-paid concessions towards closing costs, repairs, and rate buy-downs

• Less competition on most listings

• Longer days on market give buyers time to evaluate options

And here’s the kicker: 30-year fixed mortgage rates just dropped to 6.55%, the lowest in 10 months. If rates stay here, we may see a mild demand bump heading into fall.

Cromford Market Index Trends Show Local Variation

Cromford’s Market Index (CMI) shows 14 of 17 major cities in Maricopa County improving for sellers this month — but almost all of that improvement is tied to falling supply, not surging demand.

• Paradise Valley: +37% Month-over-Month CMI change, driven by ultra-low supply.

• Cave Creek & Scottsdale: Strong jumps in CMI, also supply-driven.

• Tempe, Surprise, Maricopa: Conditions tipped slightly more in buyers’ favor.

This tells us that even “improving” seller markets may not hold those gains if supply bounces back.

National Trends Confirm the Shift

John Burns Research reports that resale prices are down Year-over-Year in 53 of 150 major markets, including Arizona. Builders are cutting new home prices (-1.5% Year-over-Year) and offering incentives as inventory builds. The takeaway is clear: realistic pricing and patience are now required for sellers. Buyers, especially those with stable jobs, have opportunities they haven’t seen in years.

What to Do Now

If You’re Selling:

• Price for today, not last year.

• Expect concessions — build them into your strategy.

• Make your home “show ready” to attract the shrinking buyer pool.

If You’re Buying:

• Use your leverage — negotiate for credits, repairs, and rate buy-downs.

• Rates at 6.55% improve monthly affordability.

• Don’t wait for a “crash” — act when the right home and deal align.

Bottom Line:
Short-term conditions may feel better for sellers due to lower competition, but the fundamentals still tilt toward buyers. If rates stay low and supply stays tight, sellers could see modest relief. If not, expect the downward price trend to continue into fall.

Sources:
Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS): https://armls.com/statistics - ARMLS® COPYRIGHT 2025
The Cromford Report: https://cromfordreport.com/
Tamboer Consulting LLC

For clear, data-backed guidance on your next move, reach out to us.
Lianne: 602-463-1730 | Jason: 602-909-0673 | team@therfgaz.com