In this post, we’re breaking down what happened in the Maricopa County real estate market in March, what the latest data means for buyers and sellers, and what to watch as we move deeper into the spring market.

What’s Happening in the Maricopa County Real Estate Market?

• There were 7,560 closed sales in March, up 9.2% from a year ago and 32% from last month.
• Active listings totaled 25,265, down slightly from last month and just 0.75% higher than last year.
• Listings under contract reached 9,237, up 8% from last month and 8% year-over-year.
• Average sales price rose to $637,922, up 1.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year.
• Median sales price was $455,000, up from last month by 1% and flat compared to last year.
• Average price per square foot was $314.14, down slightly from last month but up 1.1% year-over-year.
• Average days on market dropped to 85 days, which is up from 79 days this time last year.
• Months of supply fell to 3.34, while the absorption rate rose to 29.9%.

Below is a breakdown of overall sales volume by city:

What’s Really Happening With Home Prices

At first glance, pricing looks strong, but the full story is more nuanced.

• The average price per square foot climbed to $319.03 mid-March, reaching record highs.
• But this increase is being driven mostly by a surge in ultra-luxury home sales.
• Meanwhile, the median price (which better reflects most homes) is around $454,000, slightly down from last year.

The takeaway: Prices haven’t surged across the board; rather, the mix of homes selling has changed.

Looking ahead, pending listings suggest that prices may ease slightly in the near term, especially if luxury activity slows.

Where Demand Is Showing Up Right Now

March saw broad-based activity across the Valley, not just in one segment.

• Phoenix and Scottsdale continue to lead in total sales
• Strong activity in Mesa, Surprise, and Chandler
• Consistent demand in Buckeye, Goodyear, and Maricopa

March recorded the highest sales volume since May 2023, with closings up about 9% year-over-year.

At the same time:

• Under contract activity rose 8%, reaching a 3-year high for March
• Buyer activity increased across multiple price points

What’s Driving the Increase in Activity

The biggest driver is improved affordability compared to last year.

Mortgage rates in March were generally in the low-to-mid 6% range, compared to 7%+ last year. That shift has been enough to bring more buyers back into the market.

A Shift Worth Watching: Resale vs New Construction

• Resale homes are gaining momentum
• New construction sales are down 17% year-over-year

Buyers are finding better value in resale inventory, while builders are facing more resistance at current price points.

What Does This Mean for Phoenix Homeowners and Sellers?

Sellers are in a stronger position than earlier this year:

• Homes are selling faster
• Demand is improving
• Competition is stabilizing

However:

• Pricing is steady, not rapidly rising
• Buyers remain selective

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What Does This Mean for Phoenix Home Buyers?

Buyers still have opportunities, but the window is narrowing:

• Inventory is no longer growing meaningfully
• Homes are moving faster
• Well-priced homes are getting attention quickly

Preparation matters more than ever.

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Conclusion

March showed a market that is stronger than expected — but also evolving quickly.

Demand is rising, homes are selling faster, and buyers are re-entering the market thanks to improved affordability. At the same time, supply is no longer expanding in a meaningful way.

The key takeaway: This market is becoming more competitive — but selectively so.

For buyers, the opportunity window is still open, but may not stay open for long.
For sellers, conditions are improving, but strategy still matters.

Sources

ARMLS STAT Report – March 2026

Cromford Report Market Summary

Cromford Report Mid-Month Forecast